• UK
  • World
    • USA
  • Entertainment
    • Celeb
    • Showbiz
    • Magazine
  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Gaming
  • Tech
  • Science
    • Education
  • Insurance
  • Business
  • Auto
  • ToS/Contact
    • ToS
    • Privacy Policy
    • Contact
NewsExplored
  • UK
  • World
    • USA
  • Entertainment
    • Celeb
    • Showbiz
    • Magazine
  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Gaming
  • Tech
  • Science
    • Education
  • Insurance
  • Business
  • Auto
  • ToS/Contact
    • ToS
    • Privacy Policy
    • Contact
  • Facebook

  • Twitter

  • LinkedIn

  • Tumblr

  • RSS

UK

UK economy: Shoppers aid growth but slowdown ahead, says report

UK economy: Shoppers aid growth but slowdown ahead, says report
Newsexplored
12th October 2020
5
SHARES
ShareTweet
SubscribeRedditGoogleWhatsappStumbleuponPinterestDiggLinkedinTumblrTelegram
Views:
3
lockdown threatImage copyright Getty Images

The UK economy may have grown by as much as 17% in the three months to the end of September, says the EY Item Club, but slower growth may follow.

Shoppers splurged during the period as coronavirus lockdown restrictions were lifted, it said.

It is a rosier vision than the one offered by Item Club economists in the summer, but they warned that growth for the rest of 2020 would be far slower.

Growth for the final three months will be 1% or less, they predicted.

“The UK economy has done well to recover faster than expected so far,” said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club.

“Consumer spending has bounced back strongly, while housing sector activity has also seen a pick-up, in part thanks to the stamp duty holiday.”

The economy probably grew 16-17% in the third quarter of the year compared with the second quarter, it said. It had been expecting growth of 12%.

Trade deal risk

While government help such as the furlough programme has provided “much-needed support”, growth will now begin to fade, said Mr Archer.

The end of the furlough scheme, under which workers had part of their salary paid by the government, will mean higher unemployment and sluggish growth, said the forecasters, who use a similar economic model to the Treasury.

That said, the UK economy is now predicted to regain its pre-pandemic size in the second half of 2023. Back in July, the EY Item Club did not expect that to happen until late 2024.

Official figures from the Office for National Statistics showed last week that The UK economy continued its recovery in August, growing by 2.1% in the month, as the Eat Out to Help Out scheme boosted restaurants.

data-ad-format="auto">

It was, however, smaller than economists had estimated and helped drag down the estimated pace of recovery for the year.

As with any economic forecast, there are factors which could speed up or slow down the recovery, the economists said.

A vaccine is likely to help the economy, but there are more likely threats to growth than there are surprise boosts.

Factors that could weigh down growth include a drop in consumer spending, more lockdown measures, slow Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU and a spike in unemployment.


“The latest forecast also notes that, even if further virus outbreaks are contained and major restrictions on economic activity are avoided, consumers and businesses could remain cautious in their behaviour for an extended period,” the report said.

The Club’s estimates assume a simple free trade agreement with the EU by the end of the year.

Without an agreement, growth of 4.8% is forecast in 2021, down from 6%, while growth in 2022 would be cut to 2.6% from 2.9%.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Google+ (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)
  • Share on Skype (Opens in new window)

Related

Related Itemsaheadeconomygrowthreportshoppersslowdown
UK
12th October 2020
Newsexplored @newsexploredweb

Related Itemsaheadeconomygrowthreportshoppersslowdown

More in UK

  • Read More
    Is Scotland moving towards independence?

    Views:3 By James CookChief news correspondent for The Nine Published 1 hour ago image copyrightGetty Images image...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    What happens when a Banksy appears?

    Views:3 By David Pittam & Gavin BevisBBC News, East Midlands image copyrightReuters image captionThe new artwork has...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Covid-19: Why do people break lockdown rules?

    Views:3 By Chris WoodBBC News image copyrightShannon Fagan/Getty People have been shaking hands to show friendship and...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Newspaper headlines: ‘Kindness of strangers’ and Covid ‘hysteria’

    Views:3 By BBC NewsStaff image caption“Kindness of strangers” is the headline on the front of the i...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    England v Barbarians called off after players breach Covid rules

    Views:3 England, who have not played since March, are set to face Italy in the Six Nations...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    England cricketers agree 15% pay cut

    Views:3 The 15% pay cut includes all retainers, match fees and win bonuses England’s centrally contracted men’s...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    HS2: Moving ancient woodland habitat for rail line flawed, ecologists say

    Views:3 By Claire MarshallEnvironment correspondent image copyrightPhil Coomes/BBC image captionThe site of a new ‘ancient wood’ Moving...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Wales lockdown: ‘Stay home’ order as Covid ‘firebreak’ to start later

    Views:3 Related Topics media captionMixed views on the firebreak in Wales’ first local lockdown area Wales’ 17-day...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Newspaper headlines: Test and trace ‘can’t cope’ and jobs aid ‘triples’

    Views:3 By BBC NewsStaff image caption“Test and trace down the pan” is the headline on the Metro...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Justin Fashanu: 30 years since footballer came out

    Views:3 By Zoe Applegate & Martin BarberBBC News image copyrightGetty Images image captionJustin Fashanu was brought up...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Clydach murders: Potential doubts over conviction of David Morris

    Views:3 media captionProf Mike Berry casts doubt on the conviction of David Morris for Clydach murders Fresh...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
  • Read More
    Camper-van conversion: ‘We sold all our possessions to go live in a van’

    Views:3 By Francesca GillettBBC News image copyrightthis_mother_life image captionMeg, Josh and daughter Marlowe are living off solar...

    Newsexplored 12th October 2020
Scroll for more
Tap
data-ad-format="auto">
NewsExplored

NewsExplored - Making sure all the latest news is explored?

Contact us for help

  • Popular

  • Latest

  • Comments

  • Ervin Staub: A Holocaust survivor’s mission to train ‘heroic bystanders’
    USA5th October 2020
  • Storm Alex brings heavy rain and high winds to parts of UK
    UK2nd October 2020
  • Hull to Belgium ferry closure ‘end of an era’ for city
    UK1st October 2020
  • Lizzo says body positivity has become too ‘commercialised’ and ‘cool’
    USA25th September 2020
  • US Election 2020: Biden seeks to clarify remark on ending oil
    USA24th October 2020
  • Presidential debate: Trump and Biden row over Covid, climate and racism
    USA23rd October 2020
  • Fact-check: Who caged children first?
    USA23rd October 2020
  • Breonna Taylor: Officer in shooting says it ‘was not a race thing’
    USA21st October 2020
  • Les Rehrer says:

    Hello Its me :P and thanks for this post

  • optumrx login says:

    Thank For News.

  • Kent Laatsch says:

    Please let me know if you're looking for a writer…

  • Bob says:

    RT News was where I learned that Erdogan controlled isis.…

Copyright © 2018 Top News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by Wordpress.

Coronavirus: Carál Ní Chuilín tests negative but will self-isolate
Belly Mujinga: Calls for inquest into alleged ‘virus cough attack’ death
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok