Christopher Granville, Managing Director of EMEA and Global Political Research has reiterated the importance of the Government preparing for Brexit with a “plan B”.
The financial expert added that it was “unanswerable” to see whether Brexit would be a good or a bad thing for the British economy as the UK cuts ties with the European Union.
Speaking on TS Lombard’s Youtube Channel, Mr Granville said: “We don’t address let alone answer the question of will Brexit be a good thing or a bad thing for the UK economy in the long run. We think that such questions are unanswerable.
“Instead we focus on a particular question, for the shorter term, and that is – what is the risk of a shock to the UK economy arising out of the Brexit negotiating process itself.
The financial expert said the UK need a plan B for Brexit
“Our analysis focuses on the structure and the timing of the Brexit negotiations and in particular, on the need as we argue, for the UK Government to come up by the end of this year with a plan B.
“A fallback plan, in case the desired outcome of the negotiation by the end of 2018, the ‘plan A’ should fail.
“We argue that the timing of this fall back ‘plan B’ must be the end of this year.
“Not just because 12 months before the final deadline seems reasonable, but more specifically because UK businesses will need to know what the fallback plan is in order for their operational planning and risk management to proceed.”
The UK Government could duck or flunk this challenge making forced or unforced errors
Speaking to Jeremy Paxman, the Prime Minister reiterated that she would be a “difficult woman” to seal the best possible deal with the European Union.
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Theresa May suggested she would be prepared to walk away from the bloc, as she has previously insisted that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
She said: “I'm not prepared to sign up to a bad deal to the UK. We're in there to get the best deal for the United Kingdom.
“I’m optimistic because I think the European Union will want to continue their relationship with us. We'll be negotiating hard.”
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The financial expert said the UK needed a reassuring plan B in case the UK is forced to walk away from Brussels without a deal.
Mr Granville added: “Our report looks at the content of a ‘plan B’ fall back where the UK leaves the European Union willy-nilly in March 2019 without a deal and having to rely on WTO terms.
“Our conclusion is that plan B would be feasible, in the sense that it could be credible and although sub-optimal, basically reassuring.
“However, it is not a trivial task and the UK Government could duck or flunk this challenge making forced or unforced errors.”