Marine Le Pen could win the election over Emmanuel Macron, a scientist claims
Scientist Serge Galam says Marine Le Pen could win thanks to the commitment of her core voters.
The latest poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria says if the election were held next Sunday the Front National (FN) leader would win the first round over centrist Emmanuel Macron, but lose to him in the second round.
But according to Mr Galam’s calculations Ms Le Pen could secure victory in the second round and win the entire election.
One can therefore make the realistic hypothesis that there will be more abstentions for the challenger of Le Pen than for her
And the secret to Ms Le Pen’s success, according to Mr Galam, is “differential abstention”.
Mr Galam argues Ms Le Pen could win more than 50 per cent of votes needed in the second round with her core voters heading to the polls and others, who could vote for her rival, finding a reason not to vote at all.
Using the same model he used to predict Donald Trump’s election success, Mr Galam says voters unhappy with both Ms Le Pen and her challenger may find a reason not to vote at all, tipping the election in the FN’s favour.
Scientist Serge Galam says Ms Le Pen could win the second round
Mr Galam said: “What is new in the next election is that for the first time, a certain number of future anti-FN voters of the second round will have decided to reluctantly, with aversion for such and such a challenger.
“To prevent the FN win, they will force themselves to make a choice that will displease them, but then it is quite likely that many will ‘enjoy’ the slightest ‘good excuse’ for at the last moment not to go.
“One can therefore make the realistic hypothesis that there will be more abstentions for the challenger of Le Pen than for her.
Polls widely predict Ms Le Pen to win the first round
The latest poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria names Mr Macron as the frontrunner
“And it is then possible to calculate the differential of abstention necessary to compensate the distance to 50 per cent of the voting intentions for Le Pen.”
The latest poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria said if the election were held next Sunday, far-right leader Ms Le Pen would have the most votes in the first round, at 25 per cent, compared to 24 per cent for Mr Macron and 18 per cent for conservative Francois Fillon.
Things you didn't know about Marine Le Pen Mon, February 20, 2017
Marine Le Pen is a French politician who is the president of the National Front, a national-conservative political party in France and one of its main political forces.
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Described as more democratic and republican than her nationalist father, she has led a movement of "de-demonization of the Front National" to detoxify it and soften its image
But the poll says Mr Macron would go on to resoundingly beat Ms Le Pen in the two-way decider vote on May 7, with 62 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the FN leader.
The Ipsos Sopra Steria survey said Mr Macron would benefit in the second round from supporters of Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, whose risks elimination in the opening round.