While the opinion polls are are pointing to a strong Labour performance in the big cities including London, Birmingham and Manchester, this is likely to be offset by more rural areas and towns.
Theresa May’s Brexit message appears to be getting through to voters far from the urban centres despite a slump in support overall.
One party source, asked by the Financial Times if Labour was heading for a good night, said: “No. Not at all. Not one bit. They are all wrong.”
The Conservatives look to be heading for victory at the general election, according to new research
A Conservative campaigner confirmed Labour’s vote in London was still holding up: “[Jeremy] Corbyn isn’t as toxic here, even in the outer boroughs.
“But it will be a very different picture in the Midlands and the north, very different.”
Although the Conservatives may still be ahead, support for the Tories has plummeted significantly since the General Election was called by Mrs May.
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At the beginning of the campaign the Tories were 20 points ahead in the polls and boasting about targeting Labour seats with majorities of up to 8,000.
That support has slipped and now Labour insiders are saying inner city seats with small majorities of as little as 2,000 are now impervious to the Tory campaign.
One candidate told the FT: “But you have seats that are in provincial towns up north which should be safe and are nothing of the kind.”
On Friday a poll by Ipsos MORI showed the Conservative lead shrinking from 15 points to five points in just two weeks: at 45 per cent to 40 per cent.
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Prime Minister Theresa May earlier today on the campaign trail
But you have seats that are in provincial towns up north which should be safe and are nothing of the kind
An anonymous electoral candidate
By comparison, the former Labour leader Ed Miliband — who led the party to defeat in 2015 — was ahead in some polls in the run-up to the last general election.
Ben Page, chief executive of the polling organisation, said that the national picture was less important than the minority of seats which had a chance of changing hands.
In 2015, for example, only 17 per cent of seats got a new MP.
He said: “It’s all about those 100 or so seats which could change hands, it doesn’t matter how the Tories do in Chelsea or Labour does in South Shields.”
Jeremy Corbyn is hoping to be elected at Prime Minister
As is invariably the case the election will be won or lost in the marginal seats such as Great Grimsby and Mansfield.
Mr Page added: “If the Tories are 15 points ahead in marginals then it’s game over, even if the parties are close at a national level. Sir Lynton Crosby [the Tory campaign chief] could be sat in a cinema relaxing at the moment for all we know.”
Although the research also threw up some interesting insights, such as that there is a particularly strong reticence among life-long Labour voters in the north to ever voting Conservative.
It is not so apparent Ukip supporters are all shifting to the Tories.
Many are returning to the Labour fold according to the FT research.
The general election will be decided on June 8 at the ballot box
Tory candidates report the “dementia tax” blunder caused their campaign serious damage but that anger among voters — particularly the elderly — was starting to abate.
Most still predict a comfortable Tory majority. “We’d get 30 on a bad day, 50-100 on a good day,” said one.
The Tory candidates surveyed said that the first three weeks of the campaign were outstandingly positive but the launch of the manifesto and the controversy over social care was a self-inflicted wound from which the party had not fully recovered.
One candidate said: “There’s a lot of anger. After the manifesto it was a disaster for about a week but it has slowly gone away. It’s not where we were before the manifesto.”
An insider at Tory campaign headquarters admitted: “Labour have had a good campaign and stabilised their core vote. There was an incredible shift after we launched our manifesto but we are starting to see a shift back.”