The Tories are dismissing General Election polls and aiming for 80 seat majority
A series of shock polls have hinted at the possibility of a hung parliament in recent days, but Tory insiders believe a huge majority is still a likely outcome.
A YouGov poll released yesterday showed the Conservatives’ lead had shrunk to just three points, with a Ipsos Mori poll putting the gap at five points.
When the snap election was first called the Tories lead was closer to 20 points, seen at the time as an unassailable lead.
And Theresa May faced yet more bad news today when another poll run by Ipsos Mori revealed for the first time more people were dissatisfied with her leadership than satisfied.
But despite this, Tory campaign chiefs are still optimistic and aiming for a majority of 80 seats, according to sources close to Downing Street. The Lib Dems are also believed to be expecting a similar result.
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Mrs May herself has repeatedly dismissed the importance of poll results, claiming “the most important poll will take place on June 8”.
And even YouGov have admitted their system allows for a wide margin of error, following the publishing of a controversial projection, which left the Tories on 310 seats, 16 short of the majority.
Theresa May believes an 80 seat majority is possible
However, YouGov has admitted the new seat-specific modelling allows a wide margin for error, with the other end of the spectrum showing the Tories winning 345 seats – 15 more than they have now.
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The company conceded the new method was "controversial" and indicated significant "churn" in voting intentions.
The Tories have slipped massively in recent polls
Stephen Shakespeare, YouGov's chief executive, said the poll is only a central projection which "allows for a wide range of error".
He said: "However, these are just the midpoints and, as with any model, there is leeway either side. The Tories could end up with as many as 345 and Labour as few as 223, leading to an increased Conservative majority."